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Metal silicon, also known as industrial silicon, is a product smelted from silica and carbonaceous reducing agent in a submerged arc furnace. The content of the main component silicon is usually above 98.5% and below 99.99%. . In China, silicon metal is usually divided into different grades such as 553, 441, 421, 3303, 2202, and 1101 based on the content of iron, aluminum and calcium in it. Production Process Application field The downstream applications of metal silicon are mainly organic silicon, polysilicon and aluminum alloy. In 2020, China's total consumption is about 1.6 million tons, and the proportion of consumption is as follows: Silicone has the highest requirements for metal silicon and requires chemical grade. The corresponding model is 421#, followed by polysilicon. The commonly used models are 553# and 441#. Large, aluminum alloy demand not only did not increase, but also decreased. This is also a major factor that leads to the seemingly high production capacity of metal silicon, but the low operating rate and the serious shortage of high-grade metal silicon in the market.
Production in 2021 According to statistics, from January to July 2021, the export volume of silicon metal reached 466,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 41%. Domestic silicon metal production, due to the low price of metal silicon in the past few years, coupled with environmental protection and other reasons, many high-cost enterprises have low operating rates or are directly shut down. This year, some companies have increased operating rates, but they have encountered high Due to the shortage of quality raw materials, power cuts and accidents, the output of silicon metal is limited. As a major province of silicon metal production, the operating rate of metal silicon in Yunnan has a great seasonal correlation. In previous years, the operating rate was high during the flood season. Delayed water supply, insufficient power supply, and the operating rate of metal silicon is much lower than in previous years. The demand-side organic silicon and polysilicon are in short supply this year, and the price is high. Supply and demand analysis The overall production capacity of silicon metal is not small, and it has been in excess for many years. However, the reasons for the current shortage are as follows: 1. Long-term low prices, superimposed environmental factors, some companies have stopped production, resulting in zombie production capacity. There are more than 200 metal silicon production companies, and it is difficult to calculate the real production capacity. 2. The wet season in Yunnan is delayed and the output is reduced. 3. A major factory shut down due to an accident, and the supply was reduced. 4. Exports increased. 5. The demand for downstream organic silicon and polysilicon increases. 6. High-quality raw materials are scarce, and the increase in output is limited. future trend In view of the supply and demand situation analyzed above, the future trend of metal silicon mainly depends on the solution of the previous factors. First of all, for zombie production, the price will remain high, and some zombie production will resume production, but it will take a certain period of time. Secondly, the power curtailment order in Yunnan is still ongoing. Due to insufficient power supply, some silicon factories in Baoshan, Yunnan received power curtailment notices, and industrial silicon furnaces are still shut down, which is difficult to restore in the short term. Third, if domestic prices continue to be high, exports are expected to decrease. China's silicon metal is mainly exported to Asian countries, although it is rarely exported to European and American countries. However, due to the recent high global prices, European industrial silicon has increased production. In the past few years, due to the domestic cost advantage, China's silicon metal production has an absolute advantage, and the export volume is large. However, when the price is high, other regions will increase production capacity and export will be reduced. Finally, in terms of downstream demand, more organic silicon and polysilicon were put into production in the second half of the year, and the total production capacity of organic silicon was about 900,000 tons. In addition to the 400,000 tons of Hesheng Shihezi that has been put into production this year, the new production capacity this year is nearly 1.3 million tons. In terms of polysilicon, the planned production capacity in the fourth quarter of this year is about 230,000 tons, and the overall demand for metal silicon is estimated to be about 500,000 tons. However, the consumer market of end products may not consume the new production capacity, so the overall operating rate of the new production capacity will be reduced. In general, it is expected that the shortage of metal silicon will continue during the year, but the gap will not be particularly large. However, in the second half of the year, there will be challenges for organosilicon and polysilicon companies that do not have supporting metal silicon. Hoshine Silicon Industry is currently the largest industrial silicon manufacturer. This year, the 400,000-ton organic silicon monomer project in Shihezi has been put into operation. Some time ago, it was announced that the Shanshan Phase II project is expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter of this year. If it is put into production, the external supply of metal silicon will further increase. Decrease, the Yunnan metal silicon project has just started, and no new production capacity will be put into production in the short term. Yunneng Silicon Materials, which will be put into production recently, has already deployed metal silicon in the early stage and acquired Yongchang Silicon Industry. Yongchang Silicon Industry has a production capacity of 100,000 tons of metal silicon and is the third largest enterprise in China. After Yunneng Silicon Materials is put into production, it will supply other companies. will also decrease. In the second half of the year, some organosilicon enterprises may face the same situation as the current organosilicon downstream enterprises cannot buy raw materials. |
